BP CEO Tony Hayward predicts today's "top kill" effort to stop the oil spill has a 60% to 70% chance of success.
Look, no one wants to see the gusher stopped more than me. Having seen the spill's devastating effects firsthand, I have trouble even talking about the spill's impacts on communities, people's lives & wildlife without getting choked up.
But this is the same Tony Hayward who predicted the spill's environmental effects would be "very, very modest." That "60% to 70%" prediction translates to 2-to-1 odds. If Tony Hayward offered you a bet that another one of his predictions wouldn't come true at 2-to-1 odds, how much would you bet against him? I'd cash in my 401(k).
I hope I'm proven wrong & this post looks silly in hindsight. If the oil gusher really is stopped, I wouldn't be embarrassed, I'd be psyched. But an endorsement from Tony Hayward doesn't fill me with confidence.
Photo via Flickr's Truthout