The Farmers' Almanac Winter Forecast is Malarkey

The Farmers' Almanac just released its winter forecast for 2017, so I thought it would be a good time to see how their winter 2016 forecast did last year. From August 2015:

It’s not what Bostonians want to hear: The Farmer’s Almanac says another rough winter is in your stars.

A year after Boston was pummeled with the snowiest winter on record, editors of the Maine-based publication have dubbed their latest forecast a “winter deja vu,” hearkening to last winter’s misery across the Northeast.

Using a formula built on sunspots, moon phases and tidal action, the 199-year-old almanac that hits newsstands this week predicts cold and snowy weather from Maine to Montana.

Though meteorologists immediately blasted the Almanac forecast as about as accurate as a Magic 8 Ball, even PBS covered it as news. Meanwhile, scientists at NOAA predicted a winter that was warmer and wetter than average. So did AccuWeather.

So what actually happened?

December through February, a three-month period known as "meteorological winter," has shattered warm and wet records in 2015-2016 from New England to the Southeast, Midwest, Plains and West.

Basing your long-range weather forecast on sunspots is like basing your climate change outlook on the moon. When journalists repeat those guesses as news, they're doing a disservice to actual science.

News outlets also uncritically repeat the Almanac's claim to 80% accuracy. But that assertion is no more reality-based than its actual forecasts:

The Old Farmer's Almanac claims "many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate." This is simply a claim and not the actual accuracy. John Walsh, University of Illinois Atmospheric Sciences professor emeritus, reviewed the accuracy of five years of monthly forecasts from 32 weather stations around the county and found 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts and 51.9% of precipitation forecasts to correctly predict a deviation from averages.

50 percent - you could get just as accurate a guess by flipping a coin.

What do the fortune tellers at the Almanac have to say about winter 2017?

[Y]ou better start preparing because according to the Long Range Weather Forecast released by The Old Farmer's Almanac, this one is going to be a real doozy.

Every region of the U.S. will be hit with a different type of terrible. The Northeast and Midwest can expect "colder than normal" temperatures and precipitation is supposed to be "above normal."

Here in New England, the Farmers' Almanac is geared toward a certain type of yankee who, every single year, thinks god will surely punish us for our sin of enjoying summer by smiting us with a horrible winter. To get those folks to buy your almanac, you need to make sure every winter forecast fulfills that fervor.

The Day After Tomorrow: Thunderstorms with Chance of Polar Vortex

It was -6 this morning here in Fairhaven, MA but it's forecast to rise through the day ... then through the night, hitting the high at midnight. Then up to 50 with possible thunderstorms Monday. Then down to 16 Monday night, but it will be even colder 400 miles south in Washington, DC thanks to a huge chunk if the polar vortex going rogue and making a break for the US.

All totally normal, according to Fox.

"Climate Scientists Have a Technical Term for This Phenomenon: It's Called Winter"

Watch climate scientist Michael Mann talk to MSNBC's Chris Hayes on "All In" about how snow at Fox headquarters doesn't mean climate change isn't happening:

Rush Limbaugh: Hurricane Isaac a Liberal Plot to Disrupt GOP Convention

Rush Limbaugh long ago untethered himself from reality (the oxycontin may have something to do with it), but this is a new level of crazy even for him:

Rush Limbaugh is even blaming Obama for the weather. On his radio show, Limbaugh claimed that Hurricane Issac is an Obama conspiracy to shut down the Republican convention: "The National Hurricane Center, which is a government agency, is very hopeful that the hurricane gets near Tampa. The National Hurricane Center is Obama." [...]

If the Republican Party wanted to avoid any potential weather problems, they could have made the decision not to hold their convention in South Florida at the peak of hurricane season. Seriously, who in the Republican Party thought it would be a great idea to hold their convention in South Florida in late August?

My favorite part of Limbaugh's rant:

We don’t need the National Hurricane Center, and we don’t need all these weather dolts analyzing this for us. Well, we need the center, we can look at their charts and graphs, we know what to do, we can read the stuff. 

We don't need Big Government telling us when a hurricane is coming! OK, yes, we completely do.

Audio courtesy Media Matters:

Don't Play Chicken with Mother Nature, Says WJLA's Bob Ryan

With the DC area having its warmest spring on record breaking the old mark by a jaw-dropping 7/10th of a degree, WJLA Meteorologist Bob Ryan says anyone still waiting for "certainty" before supporting climate action is similar to someone ignoring a tornado siren:

Rather than minutes or hours, Americans in the possible path of a hurricane have to make a decision. Days ahead. Do I evacuate? Do I believe the forecast? There is that cone of uncertainty . . . do I take a chance? Is the science of hurricane forecasting, “settled”? Again of course not, but decisions, human and economic decisions affecting sometimes millions are made, knowing the exact outcome is uncertain.

Supposedly the great Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough making predictions, especially about the future”. However, we make decisions every day about some prediction whether it is the traffic during rush hour, canceling a weekend picnic or headed with my family to a shelter when I hear a tornado siren.

Why should a decision about what action we take based on expert outlooks for our climate and national, regional and local changes 50 or 100 years from now be any different than making a decision, taking actions, minutes, hours, days or even a week from now knowing the tornado or hurricane, snow storm or seasonal forecast is also uncertain. The science is not settled but the modern science of forecasting short term weather is solid and the modern science of estimating long term climate changes (yes global warming and it impacts) is solid. Are either 100% accurate? Do we require 100% accuracy before making a decision or taking action? Ask folks in Joplin what they will do the next time a tornado warning siren sounds.

We make decisions every day without 100% certainty, other than the sun will come up. The science of short-term weather and longer-term climate is solid. Neither is 100% certain but look where we have come in 60 years from no alerts to “You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter”. Where will we be in making climate related decisions 60 years from now? Let’s hope history gives us some perspective for our future shared decisions.

You hope your chance of having a car accident is less than 100%, yet you buy car insurance anyway. You hope the chance of your home catching fire is closer to 0%, yet you buy home insurance anyway.

The cost of cutting carbon pollution is tiny compared to how much inaction could cost. With 97% of climate scientists agreeing that our climate is warming, man-made carbon pollution is to blame, and we only have a narrow window to take action, shouldn't we get moving now?

Or should we kick up the footrest on our recliner & hope that tornado out the window will miss us?

Global Warming-Fueled Heat Demolishes March Weather Records

How has 2012 rewritten America's temperature records?

• 2012's was America's warmest March on record. It didn't just barely break the record by a tiny fraction - it smoked it by half a degree.
• Measured against the historical average, March's 8.6 degree deviation from normal was America's second-largest on record, surpassed only by another recent warm month, January 2006.
• The first three months of 2012 were America's warmest January to March on record.

What was scariest about March was how many cities in so many parts of America were so far above their historical averages and absolutely obliterated their records:

• Green Bay, WI was 10.4 degrees above normal & broke its March record by 4.4 degrees
• Des Moines, IA was 9.8 degrees above normal & broke its March record by 3.7 degrees
• Boston, MA was 6.4 degrees above normal & broke its March record by 1.6 degrees
• Norfolk, VA was 6 degrees above normal & broke its March record by 1 degree
• Bismarck, ND was 9.1 degrees above normal & broke its March record by 0.5 degrees

While Europe and much of Asia have been colder than usual this year, it's not enough to offset the global trend. January-February were 0.67 degrees above the 20th century average and the 20th-warmest on record globally.

NOAA has been unequivocal that global warming is fueling the trend. Have your local meteorologists been willing to point out that fact? And do your elected officials know it's time to act?

WJLA Makes Coverage of Climate's Impact on Warm Weather Look Easy

Reporters make covering the relationship between extreme weather and climate change seem really hard. It doesn't have to be! Take today's story from WJLA's John Gonzalez:

• It's much warmer than average
• That's good in some ways and bad in others
• Climate science tells us it fits a long-term pattern and we can expect more of it if we don't cut our carbon pollution
• Moms doing their exercises outdoors! With cute babies!

And that's it! Not controversial. Not political. No sound bite from the American Petroleum Institute necessary. Just the facts.

Many reporters think the way to dodge politics and controversy is to avoid mentioning the connection between climate change and extreme weather altogether. Just the opposite! Omitting facts and leaving a void of confusion in their place is no better than manufacturing a false "balance" with he said, she said reporting.

Will DC's TV Forecasters Acknowledge Climate's Contribution to Warm January Weather?

The DC area's forecast for Friday calls for temperatures near 60 degrees with thunderstorms. In January.

But you won't catch our television weather presenters attributing the bizarre forecast to global warming loading the dice for extreme weather! No, sir! Expect to hear lots of things like, "Wow, tropical weather in January. Uh ... weird!"

If they mentioned our changing climate, they might get angry calls from viewers who find climate reality doesn't fit in with their political views. Here in the DC area, unless your name is Bob Ryan, you're likely to figure it's better to keep quiet about the facts than risk standing up for inconvenient truths. Or maybe, like Topper Shutt, you're a climate science denier yourself.

Learn more about why some TV weathermen aren't straight with their viewers about climate science at ForecastTheFacts.org.

DC Meteorologist Ignores Climate's Influence on Warm November

WUSA-TV Chief Meteorologist Topper Shutt, last covered here giving a shout-out to climate science deniers, blogged recently about the DC region's warm November temperatures:

It was 73 on [November 14], just four shy of the record high and is still mild today but changes are on the way which is what November is all about. November typically features wide temperature fluctuations in the Metro Area. Temperature swings of highs 10 degrees above average one day can be followed by days with high temperatures 10 degrees below average all in the same week. Although rare, it has snowed in November in the Metro Area (we were reminded it can snow in October as well) while November has also seen temperatures in the mid 70s. There have been instances of both extremes that Washingtonians have experienced on this date in the not too distant past.

To use a local example, this would be like writing an article about the recent history development in Arlington's Rosslyn-Ballston corridor and saying, "Some buildings are short while others are tall." While that's true, it also would be completely ignoring the easily perceived upward trend.

Just look at the global temperature trend:

Or to get local as the Capital Weather Gang did, look at DC's Thanksgiving temperature trend:

*Reflects adjusted data to account for later occurring Thanksgiving prior to 1939.

Yes, there will always be day-to-day weather fluctuations, but over the long term, the trend is pointing up thanks to man-made carbon pollution. Even the cool-down that began yesterday only brought our temperatures down to what should be normal.

It's not controversial - it's climate science. The only thing hard to figure out is why Topper Shutt won't give the whole story about how global warming is impacting DC's weather.

Topper Shutt's Clumsy Climate Denier Dog-Whistle

If WUSA Chief Meteorologist Topper Shutt doesn't accept the established science that our planet is warming, man-made carbon pollution is to blame, and we need to switch to cleaner energy sources as quickly as possible, that's his personal choice. As the Columbia Journalism Review has reported, some meteorologists deny global warming for political reasons or because they misunderstand the science, so Shutt certainly wouldn't be alone. But I wish he'd just come out and say so instead of sneaking coded panders to the denial crowd into his articles.

Shutt recently wrote a couple of blog posts (republished in the Washington Examiner) about climate & energy issues. Over at Blue Virginia, Lowell has already examined the posts in detail, so I won't go too in-depth. But I did want to draw attention to this one line:

Some would have us believe that 'global warming', or now as it is called 'climate change' is our biggest threat to humanity.

Shutt's posts never come out and say what he really thinks about climate science, but this line is clearly his attempt at a dog-whistle to the science denial crowd. Climate science deniers like to say, "Scientists used to warn about 'global warming,' but then it didn't get warm, so they started saying 'climate change'!" Given that the article ran in the conservative Washington Examiner, owned by a conservative billionaire who made his fortune in part in oil, it's especially shameful.

First, who cares what you call it? The climate crisis, climate change, global warming, global boiling, global weirding, call it whatever you want. Arguments about terminology are just one of many ways climate science deniers try to deflect the conversation from the actual temperature record. Predictions of human-induced climate change have stayed remarkably consistent since they began in earnest in 1859, continued through (to pick just two examples) this video from 1958 and this report from 1975, right through today.

Second, that temperature record thing:

What's most ridiculous about the whole thing is that Shutt failed to mention global warming (or climate change!) when he was blogging about the DC region's record-shattering July heat just a few days before. As Media Matters has reported, it sure seems like climate skeptics only want to talk about global warming when it's snowing.

The Mist: DC Edition

All that was missing were giant mosquitoes.

Weird weather in DC this morning. At F & 9th NW it was totally clear with blue skies overhead ... but looking down 9th, there was a solid wall of fog over the National Mall. Quite an eerie effect, like the world ended just past Bruegger's Bagels:

Tropical Storm Hanna Comes and Goes

Did posts over at What's Up Arlington on the coming and going of Tropical Storm Hanna. Couple of cool pictures in the going post, check it out!